2024 is here

For better or for worse!

Jan 05, 2024

Happy 2024! I’ve officially deemed this the year where it all happens and the year where we find out. That means the election, although I’m mostly just excited to finally celebrate my elopement with a big party. It’ll be two years late but who’s counting?

Speaking of counting, there are only 11 days until the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15. The New Hampshire primary comes next on Jan. 23. I actually just got a press release from Dixville Notch, the tiny/somewhat dubious New Hampshire town that casts the first primary votes at midnight, so it really feels like primary prime time is here. (Remember when Mike Bloomberg won the 2020 Dixville Notch vote, despite not being a candidate in New Hampshire..?)

Also Mercury just went direct so we have that going for us.

Before I head off to Des Moines next week, here’s my latest story in The Messenger about how the race is shaping up in Iowa and New Hampshire. I wrote this from Iowa before Christmas, so when you see “this week” in there just know I mean a few weeks ago, lol.

But first! Trail pics 🤠

How the 2024 Primary Could Turn 2016 on Its Head

Trump is stronger in Iowa than New Hampshire in a 2016 reversal

Donald Trump came to Waterloo and told his opponents to surrender.

Flanked by Christmas trees topped with MAGA hats and gifts wrapped in images of his mugshot, the former president declared the presidential primary all but over for his rivals at a rally on Tuesday night.

“We can put this to bed after Iowa,” Trump told the crowd. “We can put it to bed for them, too, they can go home and forget it.”

Trump is leading by such a wide margin in the Hawkeye State that some of the GOP’s most seasoned political watchers assume he will cruise to victory on Jan. 15. But it could be a more competitive race in New Hampshire, where a poll released on Wednesday showed Nikki Haley at 30% among GOP primary voters.

Haley is still 14 percentage points behind Trump, but that is a much smaller margin than in Iowa, where Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is 32 percentage points behind Trump for second place. The former president has taken notice — his aligned super PAC just launched its first attack ad against Haley in the Granite State this week.

If history is a guide, it wasn't supposed to be this way. Weeks before the first votes are cast in Iowa and New Hampshire, it looks like the 2024 primary may reverse the dynamics that defined the 2016 race. At the start of this election cycle, many expected Trump to be at his weakest in Iowa because he lost the caucuses eight years ago.

“They're definitely different scenarios this time around,” said New Hampshire Institute of Politics Director Neil Levesque, whose poll showed Trump at 44% and Haley at 30% in the New Hampshire primary. “This is a state where people are really scrutinizing candidates, and as a result, his margins are much lower than they are in a state like Iowa.”

If the dynamics don’t change before the Jan. 15 caucuses, Trump’s rivals might stand a better chance of at least finishing closer to him in New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation primary state that handed him his first big win of 2016. That could be due to how the Trump era has shifted the political landscape in both states.

“The evangelical vote has really galvanized behind him. He's really been able to grow his vote share in that community where it was maybe a little bit skeptical before and it's why they ended up going with Cruz in 2016,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran Republican political strategist from New Hampshire. “Trump in 2020 didn't do well here and more Trump-centric candidates in New Hampshire haven't done well here.”

Meanwhile in Iowa, Trump had 51% of support among likely GOP caucus goers in the latest gold standard Iowa Poll, while his opponents are all below 20%.

“I wouldn't say it's in the bag, but I think unless there's just some total upset, it’s Trump’s,” said Iowa Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler, who is neutral in the caucuses. “I respect this process. I respect the people that are going to vote, probably close to 200,000 Iowans or more. But I would suspect that, probably, Trump's gonna win it.”

The Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove Trump from the 2024 ballot will likely boost Trump’s support in Iowa even more, Scheffler added.

Political watchers had thought that support for non-Trump candidates might consolidate and strengthen as candidates dropped out of the crowded primary field. But in that Iowa poll, conducted after Sen. Tim Scott and others exited the race, Trump’s support grew by 8 percentage points from October to December.

“The conventional wisdom was a smaller field will hurt Trump, and that's not what happened. In fact, the opposite happened. So I don't think the conventional wisdom understands, really, how the Trump campaign is approaching these caucuses and the impact that it's having with their ground game,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the Iowa poll.

The Trump campaign flexed its ground game and strength with first-time caucus goers in Waterloo on Tuesday, where his endorsers took the stage to give tips on how to prepare for the caucus.

“You don't even have to convince people to support President Trump here in Iowa, do we? The support is so strong,” Iowa State Attorney General Brenna Bird said at Trump’s rally, pointing to a man dressed as Santa Claus who walked around the rally holding a Christmas-themed campaign sign. “Even Santa Claus is here supporting President Trump.”

Trump’s dominance in Iowa has been a particularly damaging blow to DeSantis, who staked his presidential campaign on the Hawkeye State. DeSantis landed a coveted endorsement from popular Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, but so far has not seen his poll numbers rise with her support. And at the governor’s campaign event in Mason City this week, attendees chattered about the implosion of the Never Back Down super PAC that is managing pieces of his campaign.

DeSantis supporters say that his ground game and his devotion to spending time in all 99 of Iowa’s counties could lead to a surprise on caucus night, though.

“I've been involved in the caucuses for 20 years. This is the best ground game, voter identification and turnout effort that I've ever seen in the caucus,” said Cody Hoefert, a DeSantis endorser and former co-chair of the Iowa state Republican Party.

But the candidate who is polling closest to Trump is one who has spent more time in New Hampshire than Iowa, and who did see a bump in the polls after being endorsed by another popular GOP governor.

Haley, who recently nabbed an endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, gave the Granite State a shoutout on the stump in Davenport, Iowa on Wednesday night. She touted the New Hampshire primary poll that showed her 14 percentage points behind Trump and said it is proof that she's "surging."

“Iowa knows they start it. New Hampshire knows they continue it,” Haley said.

Read it here.